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North Africa is in the midst of its Arab Spring as weeks of protests have seen the overthrow of long-term dictators. Many were disheartened at the outcome of the original Arab Spring that began back in 2011.
Algeria is home to valuable energy reserves that have provided a steady stream of exports flowing to southern Europe for decades, along with thousands of miles of resource-rich Mediterranean coastline. But despite having all these advantages Algeria has been dominated by the army who has monopolised this wealth. Successive governments also made personal use of the country’s energy wealth leaving the countries people suffering from poverty and deprivation. Abdelaziz Bouteflika, despite a stroke in 2013 and not being seen in public, Bouteflika officially submitted his candidacy for the April 2019 elections in March 2019. This was the final straw for the masses who took to the streets and protested and their numbers have only grown.
In Sudan Omar Bashir long used tribal differences for his own advantage which ensured a unified opposition to his rule would never emerge. Bashir executed all of America’s agenda which included the separation of South Sudan. Despite Sudan being blessed with natural resources and mineral wealth most of its population languished in poverty. But by surrendering South Sudan the oil fields were lost and an agreement to share the oil revenues broke down leaving Sudan with little to no hard currency. In 2018 the government tried to conceal the dire economic situation by pointing to the removal of US sanctions. But the lack of hard currency saw the removal of subsidies on bread, leading to prices to double and inflation to spiral out of control. The government tried to print its way out of this problem, which only made matters worse. In December 2018, demonstrations broke out in several Sudanese cities, due to spiralling costs of living. The protests quickly turned from demands for urgent economic reforms into demands for Omar al-Bashir to step down. In February 2019, al-Bashir declared a state of emergency and dissolved the national and regional governments, replacing them with military and intelligence-service officers. The protests then grew even larger.
In both countries the army has stepped in and removed the rulers to placate the demonstrators. In Algeria the army chief of staff, Ahmed Gaïd Salah, effectively removed the president, stating he was physically unable to perform his role. Whilst in Sudan On 12 April 2019, the head of the transitional military council in Sudan, Awad Ibn Auf, announced Omar Bashir’s abdication. In both cases the army removed men who were a spent force in order to be seen to be on the side of the protestors and introduced transition periods with the army in charge. This is the Egypt model which was used by the army to maintain their position when they removed Hosni Mubarak in 2012. The Muslims of both nations need to ensure their revolutions are not hijacked by foreign powers or the army who protects their interests. This requires them to continue on their current trajectory and call and work for a complete change in system. This requires them to come up with detailed positions on a transition to nothing other then Islamic rule. Anything short of this will see both countries turn into Egypt or Tunisia.
In Sudan already there has been a reshuffle in those that ousted Omar al-Bashir, it seems the faces the army are placing are not being accepted by the people. In Algeria the protesters originally wanted Abdelaziz Bouteflika to withdraw his candidacy for a fifth term and wanted Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia to step down. Despite this taking place the people of Algeria are calling for a massive housecleaning from the government of the ruling clans, known collectively as le pouvoir. It remains to be seen if real change is finally taking place in a Muslim nation, but it seems lessons have been learnt from the first Arab Spring.
✍ Adnan Khan
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